MESA 2024 will be held virtually from November 11 to 15, with some hybrid events on November 16. You must be registered to access the virtual meeting.
The Iran 1400 Project is excited to organize an insightful panel that gathers experts to explore the complex relationship between Iran’s domestic developments and regional ambitions in a changing global landscape. As Iran faces internal challenges and seeks to assert its influence throughout the Middle East, understanding these dynamics is essential for anyone interested in regional stability, international relations, or Iranian studies. This panel will provide a platform for in-depth discussions on how Iran’s internal policies and external strategies intersect and impact one another, offering fresh perspectives on the socio-political transformations currently shaping Iran. We encourage attendees to join us, engage with the panelists, and contribute to this timely and important conversation.
Panel Description
In the wake of a year marked by unrest in Iran and heightened instability across the Middle East, understanding Iranian behavior requires consideration of both domestic developments and regional dynamics. As the Islamic Republic prepares for a leadership transition, seeks to exert influence in the region, and adjusts to shifts in the global order, what is the interplay between Iran’s domestic and regional politics? What transformations, domestic or foreign, have affected Iranian behavior in recent years? This panel explores the dynamic and intricate relations between Iran’s regional objectives and its desired domestic outcome. Participants will analyze the shifts and the continuities in Iranian political and social developments and how these were reflected in or influenced by the broader regional or global arena. Panelists are encouraged to delve into diverse topics that contribute to or stem from these shifts and enduring elements. Papers will seek to provide context for comprehending Iran’s role in the region by examining how trends, tensions, and shifts in the topics examined affect Iran’s behavior and the dynamics of the Middle East. Factors to analyze could include the Gaza conflict and the state of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” the role of military or security institutions in regional policy, economic and political responses to sanctions, and the Nezam’s efforts to tighten the circle of power and “purify” the ruling establishment. Questions to be explored ideally will focus on how domestic developments shape Iran’s international behavior and how foreign events affect domestic Iranian politics. Such questions could include: How is the succession question tied to Iran’s projection of power regionally or internationally? To what extent will voter participation in the legislative elections this year affect the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic and its regional standing? How does Iran’s use of proxies to project power in the region influence social movements in Iran? Would the weakening of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” erode public trust in the regime or cause division within its centers of power? Would Iranian civil society’s demands change if the Islamic Republic emerges from the war in Gaza as a stronger regional player? The panel’s goal in exploring these questions and related topics is to present a comprehensive look at socio-political developments in Iran, their impact on the citizens of Iran, and the Islamic Republic’s role and position on the global stage.
- Dr. Shabnam Jane Holliday — Presenter
- Eric Lob — Discussant
- Sydney Martin — Organizer, Chair
- Prof. Aram Hessami — Presenter
- Robert Asaadi — Presenter
Presentations
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Robert Asaadi
This paper focuses principally on Iran’s regional security objectives in the Persian Gulf through the lens of its Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE), a proposal outlined by former President Rouhani in September 2019 at the United Nations General Assembly. Calling for the inclusion of all Persian Gulf littoral states in a single collective security system, and advocating for the exclusion of non-regional powers, a close examination of this plan aids our understanding of how Iran’s vision for Persian Gulf security cooperation departs from the existing framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states backed by U.S. military forces in the region. After describing the core tenets of HOPE and explaining how this plan would revise the collective security status quo in the region, the paper then seeks to answer how, after coming to office in 2021, President Raisi and his administration have referred to the HOPE framework, particularly given that this initiative was proposed by a political adversary and ideological opponent. Furthermore, the paper describes the lukewarm response toward HOPE from the Arab Gulf states, as well as the intransigence of the United States regarding the prospect of its withdrawal from the region. Lastly, the paper examines the ‘Axis of Resistance’ foreign policy concept advanced by the Raisi administration, with particular attention to statements by government officials, including Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, calling for the institutionalization of this principle in practice. Through this comparative analysis, a clear picture of how the tension in Iran’s post-revolutionary domestic politics, between conservative and hardline factions on one hand, and reformists and moderates on the other, is made manifest in two competing visions for regional security.
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Dr. Shabnam Jane Holliday
This paper is part of a broader project that explores how the Islamic Republic of Iran legitimizes itself as a post-revolutionary government to both internal and external audiences. However, the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy is challenged by external actors and dynamics and internal revolutionary processes such as the Green Movement and the Woman, Life, Freedom Movement. The paper seeks to answer the research question of how the Islamic Republic’s relationships with Russia and China relate to how the Islamic Republic legitimizes itself as a post-revolutionary state. In terms of methodology and theoretical framework, the paper builds on debates in neo-Gramscian IR and International Historical Sociology regarding revolution and the international, highlighting the importance of historical context and the interconnected nature of domestic/internal and international/external politics. The paper particularly draws on Fred Halliday’s work on the importance of the role that ideas of revolutionaries play in highlighting not only aspiration for domestic order but also world order. The approach borrows from Antonio Gramsci’s notions of subalternity, hegemony, and domination and the Discourse Theory of Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe. The paper is primarily based on a discourse analysis of President Ebrahim Raisi’s speeches and texts. Raisi’s presidency is significant because it explicitly demonstrates a turn to ‘the East’ represented by Russia and China. This is not only for economic reasons in the context of sanctions but also for political reasons because of Russia’s and China’s political standing in the international system. The paper’s contention is two-fold. First, it argues that an appreciation of external and internal contexts contributes to a better understanding of the power dynamics embedded in the Islamic Republic’s relationship with Russia and China. The external context includes Donald Trump’s rescinding of the Iran nuclear deal and his close relationship with Benyamin Netanyahu on the one hand and regional dynamics on the other hand. This involves the Islamic Republic’s policy of ‘Axis of Resistance’; an intensification of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations; and the deterioration of Israel-Iran relations. The internal context includes protests between 2017 and 2020, as well as the Woman, Life, Freedom protests. Second, it argues that the Islamic Republic’s eastern gaze is significant because it legitimizes the Islamic Republic in the international system. This is done by demonstrating a collective challenge to a liberal world order. This, in turn, legitimizes the Islamic Republic’s ‘anti-imperialist’ narrative.
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Prof. Aram Hessami
Three events of the past 18th months, namely, The Woman, Life, Freedom Movement of September 2022, the China-brokered Suadi-Iran deal of March 2023, and the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel loom large in Iran’s recent history. These events presented challenges and opportunities for the Islamic Republic of Iran. This paper explores how these three events have affected Iran’s domestic and foreign policy objectives during the past 18 months. Specifically, I will argue that “purification” has become the centerpiece of Iran’s domestic policy. The purification project that started even before the presidential election of 2021 is being pursued with more rigor and purpose after the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising. To address the gap between the new generation of Iranians and the old revolutionaries, the Nezam, I will argue, had two fundamental choices to make: to liberalize or to tighten the grip. The Nezam chose the latter and is willing to pay the sociopolitical costs associated with this policy. The ascendancy of the narrative of the super-revolutionaries was followed by electoral policies and procedures of the Guardian Council to ensure a more homogenized and purified Nezam(regime), especially when the election of the Assembly of Experts and that of the successor were on the horizon. Regionally, contrary to what one may expect after the super-headliners’ ascendancy, I will argue that the Islamic Republic’s eastward-looking and the use of proxies approach to global and regional politics are being recalibrated after what has unfolded since October 7. The Islamic Republic’s call for the destruction of the Zionist state, as well as its longstanding opposition to the two-state solution, seems to have been merely rhetorical. However, the crux of my presentation will be the inconsistency between Iran’s domestic purification agenda after Woman, Life, Freedom and its softer, gentler, and even more pragmatic approach to its regional politics. I will argue that the domestic purification project has not led to a more aggressive or belligerent approach in the region after October 7. Iran’s military responses, I will argue, have been measured and quite contained. This may indicate that Iran’s foreign policy is less ideological and more pragmatic than is generally believed.
Sydney Martin is the Project Director of the Iran 1400 Project. He received his BA in Middle Eastern Languages and Cultures from the University of Texas at Austin. Prior to joining the Iran 1400 Project, he studied in Tajikistan with a Fulbright-Hays scholarship and interned at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East.
